Gold Market
Jefferies' Christopher Wood highlights a sharp divergence: the S&P 500 has doubled in dollar terms since early 2023 but fallen 21% relative to gold. He warns bond yield suppression could weaken the dollar.
Gold traded little changed near $4,604 an ounce on Friday as investors looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on interest rate policy.
Spot gold turned higher on Thursday, trading near $4,610 after touching a weekly low of $4,566. The dollar softened and Wall Street rallied on strong Nvidia earnings, while Fed officials sounded hawkish at Jackson Hole.
An analyst suggests gold could reach the $4800-$5000 resistance zone, but a short-term pullback of 5-7% is possible. Silver and the GDX ETF may fall 10-20%.
Gold mining supply is highly inelastic in the short term. Higher prices trigger new projects, but exploration, permitting, and construction take years, while existing mines face ore-grade declines.
Gold fell over 1.37% on Wednesday, slipping below $4,600, after US inflation data aligned with estimates and raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026.
Gold price stalled near $4,700 after a strong rally from $4,300. Sellers have appeared, with immediate support at $4,465 and a possible test of $4,510.
Gold has rallied 15% in August, supported by renewed ETF inflows, strong central bank buying, US rate expectations, Treasury buybacks and a weaker dollar.
Gold holds near a four-month high after a 5% weekly gain, with traders focused on US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole for policy clues.