Kinross Gold has cut its 2026 and 2027 production guidance by approximately 8% compared to the previous midpoint, citing weather disruptions at its La Coipa operation in Chile and weaker mining performance at Round Mountain in Nevada. The Toronto-based gold miner now expects attributable gold-equivalent production of between 1.84 million and 1.86 million ounces per year, down from the earlier range of 1.9 million to 2.1 million ounces. All-in sustaining costs for this year have also been revised higher.
Production and cost revisions
Kinross now forecasts 2026 all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,850 to $1,900 per ounce sold, up from the previous estimate of $1,730. Third-quarter production is expected to come in at around 425,000 gold-equivalent ounces, well below the consensus forecast of 495,000 ounces. BMO Capital Markets had been modelling 478,000 ounces for the quarter.
Analyst views
Desjardins analyst Bryce Adams described the combined update as a negative and trimmed his target price on the stock to C$53 from C$58, while maintaining a buy rating. He noted that the new production forecast is 8% to 9% below market expectations and the revised AISC guidance is about 8% above Kinross’ previous target. Scotiabank’s Tanya Jakusconek estimated the changes would reduce her bank’s average 2026-27 earnings and cash flow per share forecasts by roughly 10%, but cut net asset value estimates by only 3%. She lowered her target to $39 from $41 and kept a “sector outperform” rating. BMO’s Matthew Murphy said the setbacks appeared confined to the two operations and that the rest of the portfolio was intact. He reduced his target by C$1 to C$48 while retaining an Outperform rating.
Increased shareholder return
Partly offsetting the weaker operational outlook, Kinross raised its 2026 shareholder return target to 50% of free cash flow from 40%. The company has already returned about $800 million to shareholders so far this year, including roughly $655 million through share buybacks. The update was released after Wednesday’s market close. In Toronto trading, Kinross shares ended the session down 3.8% at C$38.91, and its US-listed shares fell a further 3.2% in premarket trading to about $26.75 each on Thursday.
La Coipa issues
Winter storms in Chile disrupted mining and milling at La Coipa during the third quarter, leaving operations behind plan into September. The company also encountered higher-than-expected copper grades and weaker recoveries in some sulphide ore, prompting a downward revision to 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Kinross is stockpiling copper-rich material for possible future processing and is studying the addition of a flotation circuit. The transition from oxide to deeper sulphide mineralisation may indicate an underlying copper porphyry system, which the company is exploring. Weather and mining conditions have since stabilised, improving mining rates and blending.
Round Mountain slowdown
At Round Mountain in Nevada, lower mining rates, grades and recoveries at the Phase S pit have reduced expected output this year and next. Slower mining is pushing some higher-grade ore into later periods, while lower mill grades and recoveries represent lost production. The operation is taking steps to improve performance, including using a smaller shovel to reduce dilution, according to BMO. Phase S is intended as a bridge to the higher-grade Phase X underground mine, which remains on track to start contributing in 2028. Kinross has approved Phase X along with two other US growth projects.
Key takeaways
- Kinross cut its 2026-27 production guidance by about 8% to 1.84-1.86 million gold-equivalent ounces per year.
- 2026 all-in sustaining costs are now expected at $1,850-$1,900 per ounce, up from $1,730.
- Setbacks were concentrated at La Coipa (Chile) and Round Mountain (Nevada); other operations are unaffected.
- The company raised its 2026 shareholder return target to 50% of free cash flow, partly offsetting the output reduction.
Common questions
Why did Kinross cut its production outlook?
Winter storms and metallurgical problems at La Coipa in Chile during the third quarter, plus lower mining rates, grades and recoveries at Round Mountain in Nevada, led to the 8% reduction in the 2026-27 guidance.
How much will Kinross return to shareholders?
Kinross has increased its 2026 shareholder return target to 50% of free cash flow, up from 40%. So far this year it has returned about $800 million, primarily through share buybacks.
What is the impact on Kinross’ share price?
Following the update, Kinross shares fell 3.8% in Toronto to C$38.91 and continued to decline in US premarket trading. Several analysts lowered their price targets but maintained positive ratings.
The production guidance cut underscores how near-term operational challenges can affect a gold miner’s output, even as the live gold price remains elevated. Kinross is banking on its Phase X underground project and possible flotation circuit at La Coipa to restore growth later this decade.