Precious metals are drawing attention as market participants gauge the next significant move. Domestic gold is currently priced around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams, while silver is near ₹2.4 lakh per kilogram. The focus is on how quickly these metals might return to their earlier record levels. Navneet Damani, who leads commodities research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has provided his assessment for both gold and silver, noting the influence of the rupee's value, customs duties and international prices.
Current prices and analyst outlook
Damani expects gold to maintain a positive trajectory over the coming year. He sees a potential move towards ₹2 lakh–₹2.1 lakh per 10 grams on the domestic front within the next 12 months. That range would represent a significant climb from the current level of roughly ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, trading near ₹2.4 lakh per kg, is also being watched closely, though the analyst's specific silver price target was not detailed in his recent comments.
The timeframe of one year is notable because it gives investors a clear horizon for the projected rally. It also implies that the move may not be immediate but could unfold gradually as various factors align. The domestic gold price is influenced by the international spot price (quoted in US dollars per troy ounce), the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and local levies such as customs duties.
Key factors behind the forecast
Damani highlighted three main drivers that shape his outlook. First, the rupee's movement against the US dollar: a weaker rupee makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive in Indian terms, pushing up domestic prices. Second, customs duties on gold imports, which can be adjusted by the government and directly affect the landed cost. Third, global gold prices themselves, which respond to interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions and central bank buying.
These factors are interlinked. For example, if global gold prices rise and the rupee weakens simultaneously, the domestic price could see an amplified increase. Conversely, a sharp rupee appreciation or a cut in import duties could temper the upside. Damani's positive view suggests he expects a net supportive combination of these variables over the next year.
Investors tracking the live gold price can monitor how these elements evolve. The current level of ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams is well below the projected target, implying a potential gain of roughly 33% to 40% if the forecast materialises.
Key takeaways
- Gold is trading around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams in India; silver is near ₹2.4 lakh per kg.
- Navneet Damani of Motilal Oswal expects gold to move towards ₹2 lakh–₹2.1 lakh per 10 grams over the next 12 months.
- Key drivers include the rupee exchange rate, customs duties and international gold prices.
- The forecast implies a potential rise of roughly 33%–40% from current levels, though timing and actual outcomes depend on multiple variables.
Common questions
What is the current gold price in India?
Gold is currently trading around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams. Prices vary slightly by city and include local taxes and making charges for jewellery, but the spot benchmark is approximately at that level.
What is the analyst's price target for gold?
Navneet Damani sees gold moving towards ₹2 lakh–₹2.1 lakh per 10 grams on the domestic front over the next 12 months. This is his base case expectation, not a guaranteed outcome.
What factors could influence gold prices according to the analyst?
Damani highlights three main factors: the rupee-dollar exchange rate, changes in customs duties on gold imports, and the direction of international gold prices. These variables together determine the domestic price trajectory.
While the outlook is positive, gold remains subject to sudden shifts in global sentiment, currency moves and policy changes. Investors should weigh these risks alongside the analyst's forecast.