An Elliott Wave analyst known as Captain Ewave has updated his wave counts for the S&P 500, crude oil, and gold, adopting an alternate count for the stock index and identifying key levels for the next move. The analysis, published on 21 September 2026, suggests investors should watch specific price zones for potential reversals or continuations.
Stock market: wave (iv) retracement underway
For the stock market, the analyst has now adopted an alternate count that assumes all of wave (iii) completed at the 7816.70 high. Under this view, the market is now falling in wave (iv), which should retrace between 23.6% and 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. The analyst expects “significant weakness” over the next month as wave (iv) develops. After wave (iv) ends, a further rally to new all-time highs in wave (v) is anticipated, completing the larger wave v and V structure.
Within the shorter-term count, wave *i* of -i- ended at 4697.70, and wave *ii* is now in progress. The retracement zone for wave *ii* includes the 4235.10 low, which marks a possible completion point for wave *ii* and the start of another rally in wave *iii*. The analyst notes that this zone has been entered and urges caution.
Oil: rallying in wave iii of a larger advance
For crude oil, the wave count points to a strong upward move. Wave ii ended at the 54.89 low, and wave iii is now moving sharply higher. Within wave iii, wave (i) completed at the 119.48 high and wave (ii) at the 64.90 low. The market is currently in wave iii, with a projected endpoint. Further sub-waves show that wave -i- ended at 93.50 and wave -ii- at 74.24. The price is now rising in wave -iii- of (iii) of iii. That sub-wave is subdividing, with wave .iii. possibly complete at 106.75 or extending. After wave .iii. ends, a wave .iv. correction is expected, followed by another rally in wave .v. to complete wave -iii-. In the long term, oil is considered to be rallying in wave C, with projections still in place.
Gold: potential start of wave (v)
For gold, the analyst is working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) completed at the 3944.20 low. If that is correct, gold is beginning to move higher in wave (v). Within wave (v), wave *i* of -i- ended at the 4697.70 high, and the market is now moving lower in wave *ii* of -i-. The retracement levels for wave *ii* include the 4235.10 zone, and the analyst states that the retracement zone has been entered. Completion of wave *ii* at that level would set the stage for a rally in wave *iii*. The current live gold price remains within this analytical framework.
Key takeaways
- The S&P 500 is in wave (iv) retracement after completing wave (iii) at 7816.70, with a 23.6%–38.2% retracement expected.
- Crude oil is rallying in wave iii of a larger advance, with wave ii ending at 54.89 and initial projections for wave iii above 100.
- Gold may have completed wave (iv) at 3944.20 and could be starting wave (v), with a near-term wave *ii* retracement targeting 4235.10.
- The analysis uses Elliott Wave theory and is provided by Captain Ewave, a professional engineer and trading service operator.
Common questions
What is Elliott Wave theory?
Elliott Wave theory is a form of technical analysis that identifies recurring wave patterns in market prices, categorised as impulse waves (trending) and corrective waves (counter-trend). Analysts use these counts to project future price targets and potential turning points.
What does wave (iv) retracement mean for stocks?
A wave (iv) retracement is a corrective decline that typically retraces between 23.6% and 38.2% of the prior wave (iii) advance. After it completes, a final wave (v) rally to new highs is often expected.
Why is the 4235.10 level important for gold and stocks?
For both gold and the stock index, the 4235.10 level is cited as a possible completion point for wave *ii* (a corrective sub-wave). If the market holds there, it could mark the start of a renewed uptrend in wave *iii*.
The analysis reflects the views of one particular trading service and should be considered alongside other indicators. Investors can monitor the latest price action using the live gold price as a reference.