Gold, silver and crude oil are back in the spotlight as global markets absorb the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate increase. Higher rates and elevated bond yields typically weigh on commodities, but persistent geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions are complicating the picture. Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, gives her view on where prices may head next.
How the Fed rate hike affects commodities
The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates again strengthens the US dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. However, Bharti points out that precious metals have found support from two ongoing trends: central bank buying and steady inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Together, they are helping to offset the downward pressure from higher yields. Silver, while more volatile, is also being influenced by industrial demand and safe-haven flows.
Crude oil rally on supply risks
Crude oil has staged a sharp rally recently, driven by supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty. Bharti identifies key technical levels for both WTI and Brent crude that traders are watching. The combination of OPEC+ production constraints, sanctions, and unrest in producing regions has tightened the market. She notes that until these risks ease, crude may remain elevated, though softer global demand could cap gains.
Gold and silver price outlook through 2026
Bharti expects gold to remain well-supported despite the higher-rate environment, thanks to continued central bank purchases and ETF demand. She outlines specific support and resistance levels on the MCX and COMEX for both gold and silver. Looking further ahead, she discusses how monetary policy, inflation trends and geopolitical developments could shape the trajectory of precious metals through 2026. Silver, often more volatile than gold, may offer both opportunities and risks depending on industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electronics.
Key takeaways
- The latest Fed rate hike strengthens the dollar but gold is being supported by central bank buying and ETF inflows.
- Crude oil has rallied sharply on supply disruptions and geopolitical risks – key levels for WTI and Brent are being watched.
- Silver’s outlook is tied to both safe-haven demand and industrial use, with MCX and COMEX levels noted by analysts.
- The medium-term view for gold and silver through 2026 depends on how interest rates, inflation and geopolitical tensions evolve.
Common questions
Why is gold holding up despite higher interest rates?
Gold is finding support from central banks that continue to add to their reserves, as well as from investors buying gold ETFs for portfolio diversification. These factors are partially offsetting the usual headwind from higher yields and a stronger US dollar.
What is driving the current rally in crude oil prices?
Supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and production constraints have tightened the oil market. Analysts point to specific resistance and support levels for WTI and Brent as markers for where prices might go next.
The interplay of monetary policy, geopolitics and supply-demand fundamentals will continue to drive commodity prices in the months ahead. For the latest updates on gold and other precious metals, check the live gold price.