Artificial intelligence is being credited with reshaping industries from healthcare to logistics. But when it comes to gold, one veteran analyst says AI has little to do with where prices go next. In a recent note, Avi Gilburt of Elliottwavetrader argues that market sentiment – not technology or fundamentals – has been the primary force behind gold’s moves for decades.
His view is supported by academic work, including a 1988 study on stock price movements which found that macroeconomic news explained only about one-fifth of market moves. Many of the largest price swings, the study noted, occurred on days without major news. For Gilburt, that is evidence that the psychological side of markets deserves more attention than the hype around AI.
The technical picture for gold futures
Gilburt’s latest analysis focuses on the December gold futures contract. He identifies a support zone between $4,133 and $4,233 per troy ounce. As long as that area holds, he expects the market to stage another rally, targeting at least the $5,100 region.
Support and resistance levels like these are not guarantees of price action; they mark areas where traders have previously shown interest and where orders may cluster. The $4,133–$4,233 band represents a zone where Gilburt believes buyers are likely to step in.
In June, he advised buying mining stocks, which he said had bottomed. Many of those stocks subsequently rose more than 50%. By August, as prices topped, he told members of his service that he was cashing in half of his positions in anticipation of a pullback – the very pullback he now sees reaching a critical juncture.
Why fundamentals can mislead
Gilburt is sceptical of the common narrative that news events or data releases drive prices. He points out that inflation data can appear to push gold down one day and up the next, making it hard to build a consistent cause-and-effect story. The problem, he argues, is that most market participants still think in terms of Newtonian physics – every action has an equal and opposite reaction – while modern physics long ago moved beyond that mechanical worldview.
In finance, he says, the mechanical paradigm persists: commentators search for a news event to explain every price move, and when none fits, they fall back on vague references to “psychology”. Borrowing from socionomist Bob Prechter, Gilburt suggests that observers are so conditioned to see cause and effect that they ignore the many times when news and price action do not line up.
That does not mean gold is random. For traders who use sentiment-based tools such as Elliott Wave analysis, patterns in crowd behaviour can offer a framework for anticipating turning points. Gilburt’s own approach relies on wave counts and sentiment extremes rather than economic forecasts.
Key takeaways
- Analyst Avi Gilburt argues that market sentiment, not AI or fundamentals, drives gold prices.
- December gold futures have a support zone between $4,133 and $4,233 per troy ounce.
- Gilburt expects a rally toward $5,100 if support holds; he recently took partial profits after a strong run in mining stocks.
- Academic studies cited by the analyst suggest news explains only a small fraction of price movements.
Common questions
Does AI really affect the gold price?
According to the analyst cited above, AI has little direct impact on gold. He believes prices are driven primarily by crowd psychology and sentiment.
What is the current support level for gold futures?
For the December 2026 contract, Gilburt identifies support between $4,133 and $4,233 per ounce.
What is the outlook for gold if support holds?
If the support zone holds, the analyst expects a rally to at least the $5,100 region. This is his personal assessment, not a guaranteed forecast.
Conclusion
Whether or not readers agree with the view that sentiment trumps all, the debate over what truly moves gold is as relevant as ever. For those monitoring the market, the technical levels outlined by Gilburt offer a reference point. You can track the latest price action on our live gold price page.